Memphis recorded 528 murders in 2022. Through the first half of 2023, the city is on pace to exceed that number. If the current trajectory holds through December, we’re looking at somewhere around 580 to 600 homicides for the year, which would make 2023 one of the deadliest in the city’s history.
That’s the headline number. It’s bad. And it’s also not the whole story.
The midyear crime data coming out of MPD tells a more complicated tale than “Memphis is dangerous,” which is the only narrative most national outlets bother with. Some categories are worse than last year. Others are shifting in ways that matter more to the people who actually live and work here. I’ve been going through the numbers for the past two weeks, cross-referencing MPD reports with Shelby County data, and here’s what I’m seeing.
Murders: Worse, and Concentrated
The murder rate is the number that defines Memphis in national rankings, and the first half of 2023 isn’t helping. Memphis already has the highest per capita murder rate among major U.S. cities, a distinction the city has held in various forms for several years running. The raw count through June puts us slightly ahead of last year’s pace.
What the raw count doesn’t show is the geographic concentration. Memphis murders aren’t distributed evenly across the city. They cluster in specific neighborhoods with predictable consistency. Frayser, Whitehaven, Hickory Hill, and parts of Raleigh account for a disproportionate share of homicide incidents. The zip codes 38109, 38116, and 38127 appear in MPD’s homicide reports with a frequency that should alarm anyone doing risk analysis for those areas.
The victim profile hasn’t changed much either. The majority of murder victims in Memphis are Black men between 18 and 35, and most homicides involve firearms. Roughly 85% of murders in Memphis involve a gun. That statistic has held steady for years and shows no sign of shifting.
For security professionals and property managers, the murder concentration data matters more than the citywide total. If you’re operating a property in Germantown or East Memphis, your homicide risk profile is fundamentally different from a property in Westwood or South Memphis. Blanket statements about “Memphis crime” miss that distinction entirely.
Robbery: The Number That Should Scare You
Murders get the headlines. Robberies should get more attention from the business community.
Memphis’s robbery rate through the first half of 2023 is running at approximately 231.5 per 100,000 residents. That’s the highest rate in years. Robbery is a direct-contact crime. It happens at gas stations, convenience stores, parking lots, and on sidewalks. Unlike murder, which is overwhelmingly interpersonal (victim and offender usually know each other), robbery is the crime most likely to affect a random person going about their day.
The robbery numbers are particularly bad along commercial corridors. Summer Avenue, Lamar Avenue, the Winchester Road stretch through Hickory Hill, and parts of Poplar near Highland have all seen clusters of armed robbery incidents in the first six months. Gas stations and convenience stores remain the most common targets, followed by restaurant employees leaving work with cash deposits.
Carjackings deserve their own paragraph because they’ve become almost a category unto themselves in Memphis. The city has been dealing with elevated carjacking numbers since 2020, and 2023 is continuing the trend. Most carjackings involve juvenile suspects, which creates a separate set of problems for the criminal justice system that I’ll get to in a minute. The typical carjacking in Memphis happens in a commercial parking lot between 6 p.m. and midnight. Grocery stores, big-box retail, and apartment complexes are the most common locations.
If you’re a property manager reading this, your liability exposure on robbery and carjacking is real. Inadequate lighting, lack of security presence, and no camera coverage in a parking lot where a carjacking occurs can become factors in a civil lawsuit. Tennessee premises liability law doesn’t require property owners to prevent crime, and it does require reasonable security measures in areas with known criminal activity.
Property Crime: The Quiet Surge
Here’s a number that isn’t getting enough attention: Memphis’s property crime rate through mid-2023 is running at approximately 2,043.3 per 100,000 residents. That’s the highest since 2006.
Property crime doesn’t generate press conferences or vigils. Nobody marches for a stolen catalytic converter. Nonetheless, the aggregate cost to Memphis businesses and residents is enormous. Auto theft, burglary, larceny, and vandalism eat into profit margins, raise insurance premiums, and drive business relocation decisions.
Auto theft is the standout subcategory. Hyundai and Kia models manufactured between 2015 and 2021, which lack engine immobilizers, have been stolen at rates that would be comical if they weren’t so destructive. The “Kia Boys” trend that went viral on social media in 2022 hasn’t faded. Memphis auto theft numbers are still elevated, and the stolen vehicles often turn up involved in other crimes, including carjackings and armed robberies.
Retail theft is harder to quantify because many incidents go unreported. Store managers at Wolfchase Galleria, Southland Mall, and various standalone retailers across Memphis have told me that organized theft groups are hitting stores with increasing sophistication. Teams of three or four people enter a store, grab armfuls of merchandise, and leave before security or employees can respond. The dollar amounts per incident are relatively small. The volume is not.
The Juvenile Crime Problem
Memphis is dealing with a juvenile crime problem that no one has a good answer for.
Juvenile arrests for serious charges are actually running about 13% lower than the same period in 2022, which sounds like progress until you dig into what’s happening beneath that topline number. Fewer arrests don’t necessarily mean fewer crimes. They can also mean fewer apprehensions, which is a different thing entirely.
Juvenile suspects are involved in a significant percentage of Memphis carjackings and auto thefts. Some are as young as 12 or 13. The Shelby County Juvenile Court system processes thousands of cases per year, and the cycle of arrest, release, and rearrest for juvenile offenders is a source of deep frustration for both law enforcement and community organizations.
The problem is structural. Tennessee’s juvenile justice system is designed around rehabilitation, not incarceration, which is the correct approach for most juvenile offenders. The challenge is that a small number of repeat juvenile offenders are committing violent crimes at a rate that the rehabilitation framework isn’t built to handle. A 14-year-old who has been arrested four times for carjacking isn’t going to be deterred by another court appearance.
MPD and Shelby County are trying various approaches. Curfew enforcement has been ramped up in some areas. Community organizations in Frayser and Raleigh are running summer programs designed to keep teens occupied during the hours when juvenile crime peaks. Whether any of it is working is difficult to measure in real time.
What the Neighborhood Data Shows
Crime in Memphis is hyperlocal. Two streets can be in the same zip code and have completely different risk profiles. The midyear data reinforces patterns that anyone who works in Memphis security already knows.
Hickory Hill continues to be one of the most challenging areas in the city. The neighborhood, which sits in Southeast Memphis roughly bounded by Winchester, Ridgeway, Nonconnah Creek, and Hacks Cross, has seen persistent problems with robbery, auto theft, and aggravated assault. The commercial strip along Winchester between Hickory Hill Road and Riverdale is particularly active.
Frayser, in North Memphis, remains one of the city’s most violent neighborhoods by per capita rates. The area around James Road and Whitney Avenue sees regular violent crime incidents, and residential burglary rates in Frayser are among the highest in Shelby County.
Raleigh has seen a noticeable uptick in commercial robbery along the Austin Peay Highway corridor. Several fast-food restaurants and convenience stores in the area have been hit multiple times this year.
Whitehaven, in Southwest Memphis, is dealing with a mix of property crime and violent crime concentrated around the Graceland tourist area and the Elvis Presley Boulevard corridor south of Shelby Drive. The contrast between tour buses and crime scene tape on the same street is something uniquely Memphis.
What the Numbers Don’t Tell You
Statistics measure what gets reported. In Memphis, underreporting is a known issue across nearly every crime category. Property crime victims increasingly don’t bother filing police reports because they don’t expect follow-up. Some violent crime victims won’t cooperate with investigations due to fear of retaliation or distrust of MPD, a problem that intensified after the Tyre Nichols case in January.
The SCORPION unit’s disbanding removed roughly 40 proactive patrol officers from high-crime areas. Six months later, those patrol gaps haven’t been filled. MPD’s authorized strength is around 2,300 officers, and the department is believed to be operating several hundred below that number due to resignations and retirements outpacing hiring.
When you combine rising crime rates with reduced police capacity and increased underreporting, the real picture in Memphis is probably worse than the official numbers suggest. That’s not alarmism. It’s arithmetic.
What Comes Next for the Second Half
Summer is historically the most violent season in Memphis. Heat, school breaks, and longer daylight hours all correlate with increased criminal activity. If the first half’s trajectory holds, 2023 will finish with crime numbers that rank among the worst in the city’s modern history.
For property owners and security professionals, the midyear data should drive two immediate actions. First, reassess your risk profile based on your specific location, not citywide averages. A property on Quince Road in East Memphis faces different threats than one on South Third Street. Second, review your security contracts and camera systems before the fall. Companies that wait until crime spikes to upgrade their security posture always pay more and get less.
The numbers are the numbers. Memphis has a crime problem that isn’t going away by December. The question for business owners and residents is whether they’re making decisions based on data or on hope. Right now, the data says prepare.