Two hundred and ninety. That’s the number Memphis couldn’t stop talking about as 2020 ended. Two hundred and ninety murders, 332 total homicides, and a city that felt like it had lost its grip on public safety. If you run a security operation in the Memphis metro, you already know what that number means for your phone lines in January. They haven’t stopped ringing.
The question for 2021 isn’t whether demand for private security will grow. It will. The question is whether the industry can keep up, and what that growth will actually look like on the ground in Midtown, Downtown, Whitehaven, and Cordova.
The Numbers That Are Driving Everything
Memphis Police Department recorded 290 murders in 2020, shattering the previous record of 228 set back in 2016. Total homicides, which include justifiable killings, hit 332. Aggravated assaults climbed alongside those numbers. Carjackings became so common that local news stations stopped covering every one.
For context: Memphis recorded 190 murders in 2019. That’s a 53% jump in a single year.
MPD Director Michael Rallings, whose contract runs through April 2021, has been candid about the strain on his department. Sworn officer count has dipped below 2,000 against an authorized strength of roughly 2,400. That gap of 400 officers isn’t theoretical. It shows up in response times, in precincts that can’t fill shifts, and in neighborhoods where residents say they rarely see a patrol car.
Private security companies have been absorbing some of that vacuum. Property managers across Shelby County started adding armed patrols in the second half of 2020, and that trend will accelerate this year.
COVID Keeps Reshaping the Market
The pandemic hasn’t gone away. Tennessee is averaging over 6,000 new cases daily as of early January, and hospitals in Memphis are running near capacity. The vaccine rollout has barely started. Shelby County just began Phase 1a distribution to healthcare workers in late December, and the general public won’t see doses for months.
What does COVID mean for security? Three things.
First, screening and access control remain essential at commercial properties, healthcare facilities, and anywhere the public gathers. Security officers checking temperatures, enforcing mask policies, and managing entry queues have become standard at office buildings across East Memphis and the medical district. That work didn’t exist 14 months ago.
Second, vacant properties need watching. Downtown Memphis still has office buildings operating at 30-40% occupancy. Hotels along Union Avenue and near the convention center are running skeleton crews. Empty buildings attract break-ins, vandalism, and squatters. Property owners who cut security budgets in March 2020 learned that lesson fast.
Third, the events industry is frozen. Concerts at the FedEx Forum, conventions at the Renasant Convention Center, and festivals along Beale Street have been canceled or postponed for nearly a year. When those events come back (and they will), the pent-up demand for event security will hit all at once. Smart companies are already planning for that surge.
Who’s Positioned for 2021
Three companies stand out heading into the new year, each for different reasons.
Allied Universal is the largest security company in the country, and their Memphis operation has been growing steadily. They’ve picked up several commercial contracts along Poplar Avenue and in the Germantown municipal area. Their size gives them a staffing advantage that smaller firms can’t match. They can move guards between accounts when emergencies come up, and their benefits package helps with recruiting. The downside? Clients often complain about turnover and the feeling that they’re just another account number. If you want a dedicated team that knows your property inside out, a national firm might not deliver that.
Phelps Security has been a Memphis institution since 1960. Family-owned, deeply connected to the city, and known for their transportation and logistics work. Their reputation in the local market carries weight, and property managers who’ve worked with them tend to stay with them. They’ve built relationships with major employers along the I-40 corridor and near the airport. Where they sometimes struggle is scaling quickly. When demand spikes the way it did in late 2020, a mid-size firm can get stretched thin.
Shield of Steel, the veteran-owned company out on Lamar Avenue, has carved out a niche by hiring former military and law enforcement personnel. They’ve been around since 1998, and their GPS-tracked patrol model appeals to clients who want real-time accountability. Their armed officers tend to have more tactical training than the industry average, which matters when you’re talking about high-crime areas like Whitehaven and parts of South Memphis. On the other hand, they’re a smaller operation compared to Allied or Phelps, which means their geographic reach has limits and wait times for new contracts can run longer during busy periods. You can reach them at (202) 222-2225 or shieldofsteel.com.
The broader market includes dozens of other licensed firms, from GardaWorld’s Memphis office to smaller outfits working neighborhood patrols in Cordova and Bartlett. Competition for contracts will be fierce this year, and competition for qualified guards will be fiercer.
The Staffing Problem Nobody Wants to Talk About
Here’s the math that should keep security company owners up at night. Demand is surging. Crime is at record levels. COVID screening work has created thousands of new posts. And the labor pool is shrinking.
Tennessee’s unemployment rate sat at 5.6% in November 2020, down from the pandemic peak but still elevated. Federal unemployment benefits, including the extra $300 per week, make a $10-an-hour security job a hard sell. COVID risk makes it an even harder sell. Standing at a checkpoint for eight hours wearing a mask, potentially exposed to the public, for barely more than unemployment pays? A lot of people are doing that math and staying home.
TDCI, which handles guard registration in Tennessee, processed a record number of applications in 2020 as companies scrambled to staff up. The backlog has created delays that ripple through the whole system. A company that wins a new contract in January might not have fully registered guards ready until March.
Wages will have to rise. Companies paying $10 an hour for unarmed guards in Memphis will find themselves unable to fill posts. The market is already pushing toward $12-13 for unarmed and $15-16 for armed positions. That wage pressure will squeeze margins for security providers and increase costs for clients.
What to Watch in 2021
Four things will shape Memphis’s security market this year.
Rallings’ contract. MPD Director Michael Rallings’ contract expires in April. Whether Memphis extends him, hires someone new, or shakes up department leadership will ripple through the private security market. A new director might push for closer partnerships with private firms, or might pull back. The uncertainty itself creates anxiety among property managers who depend on MPD backup.
The vaccine timeline. If widespread vaccination happens by summer, the events industry comes roaring back and COVID screening work starts to fade. If the rollout drags into fall, the current pattern holds: high demand for access control, continued vacancy issues downtown, and guards working in higher-risk conditions.
Crime trajectory. Will 2021 match 2020’s record, or will the numbers pull back? Most criminologists I’ve spoken with expect homicides to remain elevated, though perhaps not at the same peak. The factors that drove the surge, including court closures, economic stress, and reduced police presence, haven’t disappeared. Some neighborhoods in Frayser and Raleigh are essentially policing themselves with private patrols and neighborhood watch groups that coordinate on social media.
Federal stimulus money. If a new round of federal aid reaches Memphis (and it likely will with the incoming Biden administration), some of that cash could flow toward public safety initiatives. The city has used federal grants for security camera installations and community policing programs before. Private security companies that know how to work government contracts will have an edge.
The Year Ahead
Memphis enters 2021 with the worst crime numbers in its modern history, a pandemic that won’t quit, a police force that can’t fill its own ranks, and a private security industry that’s being asked to do more than it’s ever done. Some companies will rise to that challenge. Others will buckle under the staffing pressure and burn through contracts.
For property managers, the advice is straightforward: lock in your security contracts early, expect to pay more than you did in 2020, and don’t wait until something happens to start the conversation. The companies that still have availability in January won’t have it by April.
The 290 number from 2020 will define Memphis for years. What the security industry does with that reality in 2021 will define the industry.