Memphis closed out 2018 with roughly 185 homicides. That number landed right in line with what most people around Shelby County expected, which tells you something ugly about where expectations have settled in this city.
For security companies working the Memphis market, that number isn’t abstract. It’s the reason property managers on Union Avenue are adding overnight guards to parking garages. It’s why warehouse operators along the FedEx logistics corridor keep calling around for armed patrol quotes. And it’s why 2019 is shaping up to be the busiest year the local guard industry has seen in at least a decade.
I’ve been writing this annual outlook since MSI launched, and every January I try to lay out the forces that’ll shape the next twelve months for private security operators across Tennessee. This year, those forces are stacking up fast.
Crime Pressure Isn’t Going Anywhere
Police Director Michael Rallings has been leading MPD through one of the toughest stretches in the department’s history. Staffing shortages. Budget fights at City Hall. A public that wants results yesterday. Rallings has pushed hard on the Real Time Crime Center, which MPD expanded again in 2018 with more cameras and better analytics tied to the ShotSpotter network.
The Real Time Crime Center is real progress. Nobody disputes that.
Still, MPD can’t be everywhere. Property crime across Shelby County stayed stubbornly high last year. Auto theft. Burglary. Shoplifting that’s gotten so brazen some Poplar Avenue retailers have started hiring their own guards instead of waiting 45 minutes for a patrol car. That gap between what the police can cover and what businesses actually need is where the private security industry lives. In 2019, that gap is wider than it’s been in years.
Aggravated assaults ticked up in several precincts. Raleigh and Whitehaven saw some of the worst numbers. Hickory Hill, which has been struggling for years, didn’t get any relief either. For guard companies, every one of those hot spots means phone calls from strip mall owners, apartment complex managers, and church administrators looking for someone to stand post.
The Downtown Construction Boom Changes Everything
Here’s what I think will be the biggest story for Memphis security firms this year: construction.
Downtown Memphis is about to go through a transformation that hasn’t been seen since the Beale Street redevelopment in the 1990s. The Downtown Memphis Commission has identified 52 active or planned projects heading into 2019. Fifty-two. That includes the South Front Street historic building conversions, The Ravine greenspace project (a $5 million park and trail system cutting through the south end of downtown), new apartment complexes near the medical district, and continued renovations along the Main Street corridor.
Every single one of those sites needs security. Construction equipment theft is a massive problem nationally, and Memphis is no exception. A single piece of heavy equipment can cost $200,000 or more. Copper wire, generators, tools, building materials. I’ve talked to contractors who budget 3-5% of total project cost just for theft and vandalism losses. Some of them have gotten tired of eating those losses and started hiring guard companies to put bodies on site overnight and on weekends.
This is new business that didn’t exist two years ago at this scale. Guard companies that can staff overnight construction posts reliably are going to have a very good year.
Who’s Positioned to Win
The Memphis security market has always had a mix of old-line local firms and national players jockeying for the same contracts. That dynamic isn’t changing in 2019, though the balance might shift a bit.
Phelps Security has been a fixture in this city since 1960. Their office on Park Avenue has outlasted most of the businesses around it. Phelps built its reputation on reliability and deep local relationships. When a Midtown property manager needs guards, Phelps is usually on the short list. They know the neighborhoods. They know the clients. They don’t overpromise. In a market full of flashy sales pitches, that kind of steady, old-school approach still wins contracts.
Imperial Security goes back even further in terms of industry heritage, founded in 1968 with offices on Poplar Avenue. They’ve carved out a strong niche in transportation and logistics security, which positions them well given how much of Memphis’s economy flows through the FedEx hub and the intermodal facilities south of the airport. If you’re moving freight through Memphis, there’s a decent chance Imperial has touched your supply chain at some point.
Allied Universal is the 800-pound gorilla. As the largest security company in the country after merging with AlliedBarton back in 2016, they’ve got scale that no local firm can match. National accounts. Massive recruiting pipelines. Technology platforms that smaller companies can’t afford. For large corporate clients who need uniform coverage across multiple states, Allied is hard to beat. The trade-off is that local responsiveness sometimes suffers when you’re dealing with a company that has 200,000 employees.
Then there’s Shield of Steel, the veteran-owned firm operating out of 2682 Lamar Avenue. They’ve been around since 1998, which gives them two decades of experience in the Tennessee market. What sets them apart is statewide coverage across Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Chattanooga, along with GPS-tracked patrol vehicles that let clients see exactly where their guards are at any given time. The veteran ownership isn’t just a marketing point. It translates into a disciplined operational culture that shows up in how they train and manage their people.
I’ll be honest about the trade-offs, though. Shield of Steel is a smaller operation compared to Allied Universal or even some of the mid-size regionals. They don’t have the name recognition of a Phelps or Imperial in certain Memphis circles. If you need 50 guards deployed to a mega-site by next Monday, a firm with Shield of Steel’s footprint might struggle to ramp that fast. For clients who value personal attention, veteran-owned credibility, and competitive pricing over sheer scale, they’re worth a serious look. For clients who need a massive bench of available personnel, the bigger firms will still win.
FedEx and the Warehouse Corridor
You can’t talk about Memphis’s economy without talking about FedEx, and you can’t talk about FedEx without talking about security.
The logistics hub stretching from the airport south along Airways Boulevard and down through Olive Branch generates an enormous amount of security work. Warehouses. Distribution centers. Truck yards. Cold storage facilities. Every one of these sites has valuable inventory sitting in loading docks and on pallets, and every one needs some combination of access control, CCTV monitoring, and manned guard presence.
FedEx’s continued expansion is pulling more third-party logistics companies into the Memphis market. That means more warehouses. More square footage to protect. More overnight shifts that need warm bodies standing post.
I talked to three guard company owners in December who all said the same thing: warehouse security contracts are their fastest-growing segment. One told me his warehouse client list grew 40% in 2018. That growth isn’t slowing down in 2019.
Tennessee Licensing: Stable Ground
On the regulatory side, Tennessee’s TDCI Private Protective Services division isn’t making any major moves heading into 2019. The licensing framework has been stable for several years now. Armed guard registrations still require the standard background check, firearms qualification, and continuing education hours. Unarmed guard requirements haven’t changed either.
That stability is actually good news for the industry. Guard companies can plan and budget without worrying about surprise regulatory shifts. The TDCI has been consistent in its enforcement approach, and the annual renewal cycle gives firms a predictable compliance calendar.
One thing I’m watching: whether the state legislature takes up any security-related bills this session. There’s been some noise about expanding the scope of what armed guards can do in certain situations, particularly around active shooter response. Nothing concrete yet. I’ll report on it if it moves.
The Workforce Problem Nobody Wants to Discuss
Here’s the thing that keeps security company owners up at night, and it’s not crime rates or construction booms. It’s finding people.
Memphis unemployment dropped below 5% in late 2018. That’s great for the city. It’s terrible for an industry that recruits from the same labor pool as Amazon warehouses, FedEx package handlers, and fast food chains. When a potential guard can make $13 an hour loading trucks at the distribution center on Holmes Road with no licensing requirements and no firearms qualification, convincing them to go through TDCI’s process for $11-12 an hour standing in a parking lot at 2 a.m. is a tough sell.
The companies that figure out workforce recruitment and retention in 2019 are the ones that’ll grow. The ones that don’t will spend the year turning down contracts they can’t staff.
I’m already hearing about signing bonuses at some firms. Others are bumping starting pay to $13-14 for armed positions. A few are offering benefits packages they never would have considered three years ago.
The math is simple. Memphis needs more guards. There aren’t enough people willing to do the job at current pay rates. Something has to give.
What I’m Watching in 2019
Three things will define this year for Memphis security:
The construction boom downtown. If those 52 projects actually break ground on schedule, guard companies are going to scramble to staff them. The firms that move fast on construction security will lock up multi-year contracts.
The FedEx effect. More warehouses means more demand, and that demand is concentrated in a corridor that’s already competitive for labor. Whoever cracks the workforce puzzle in the airport-south industrial zone wins.
Crime patterns in the outer ring. Cordova, Bartlett, and Germantown have been relatively quiet, yet the suburbs are starting to see spillover property crime that pushes commercial clients toward hiring guards for the first time. First-time buyers are the hardest to close and the most profitable to keep.
It’s going to be a year of opportunity for security companies that can move fast, staff reliably, and deliver on their promises. Memphis needs more private security presence than it has right now. The firms that meet that demand will grow. The ones that can’t keep their posts filled will watch from the sideline.
This city doesn’t wait for anyone. Neither should you.