Two hundred and three. That’s how many people had been killed in Memphis by the end of August 2021. I pulled that number from MPD’s weekly Crimestat report on Tuesday, and I’ve been staring at it since. Last year, Memphis recorded 332 total homicides and 290 murders, smashing the previous record of 228 set in 2016. We all hoped 2020 was the ceiling. It wasn’t.
At the current pace, Memphis will finish 2021 somewhere north of 340 homicides. We’re tracking roughly 6% above where we were at this same point last year. For business owners renewing security contracts in Q4, for property managers in neighborhoods where gunfire has become background noise, for the residents of Frayser and Whitehaven and Orange Mound who live inside these statistics every day, that number isn’t abstract. It’s a planning variable.
The Homicide Numbers in Context
Let me lay out what we know through the first eight months. MPD’s data shows 203 homicides through August, compared to roughly 191 at the same point in 2020. The year-over-year increase has been steady, not spiking. That’s almost worse, because it means there’s no single event driving the numbers. This is structural.
June was the deadliest month so far, with 32 homicides. July came in at 28. August settled slightly at 25, though “settled” is doing a lot of work in that sentence when you’re talking about people dying.
The murder clearance rate sits around 55% to 60%, which is actually better than the national average for cities this size. Memphis detectives are solving cases. The problem isn’t on the investigative end. The problem is volume.
For comparison: Nashville, a city with roughly the same metro population, recorded about 90 homicides in all of 2020. Memphis is on track to quadruple that. The two cities share a state. They don’t share a reality.
Where the Violence Is Concentrated
Crime in Memphis has never been evenly distributed, and 2021 is no different. The heaviest concentration of homicides continues to cluster in specific neighborhoods, and the pattern hasn’t shifted much from last year.
Frayser, in the northern part of the city, remains one of the most dangerous zip codes in America. The neighborhood has recorded more than 20 homicides through August. The stretch of North Watkins between Rangeline Road and Whitney Avenue has been especially deadly.
Whitehaven and the areas around Elvis Presley Boulevard have seen a sustained increase in violent crime, including both homicides and aggravated assaults. Part of this tracks with a rise in armed robberies at businesses along the corridor.
Hickory Hill, which straddles the southeastern edge of the city, continues to report elevated numbers. The intersection of Winchester and Hickory Hill Road is a focal point. Residents there have been vocal about response times, and they have reason to be.
Orange Mound and South Memphis account for a disproportionate share of the city’s aggravated assault numbers. Domestic violence incidents in these neighborhoods have climbed, according to data from the Memphis Shelby Crime Commission.
Raleigh and the areas north of Summer Avenue have seen an uptick in both property crime and violent offenses. Auto theft, which I’ll get to in a minute, is particularly acute here.
Midtown and East Memphis remain relatively safer, though “relatively” is the key word. Armed robberies at restaurants and retail locations along Poplar and Union have increased enough that business owners in these areas are adding security for the first time in years.
Aggravated Assaults, Carjackings, and Auto Theft
Homicides get the headlines. They should. Every one represents a human being. The numbers that affect daily life for most Memphians, though, are the property and assault statistics that don’t make the evening news.
Aggravated assaults are running well above 2020 levels. Through July, MPD reported more than 5,800 aggravated assaults, a pace that would put the year-end total above 10,000. Many of these involve firearms. The correlation between gun assaults and homicides is direct: the difference between an aggravated assault and a murder is often just the aim of the shooter or the speed of the ambulance.
Carjackings have become a signature crime in Memphis. MPD doesn’t break carjackings out as a separate category in their standard Crimestat reports (they’re typically classified under robbery or auto theft, depending on circumstances), which makes precise tracking difficult. Anecdotally and from patrol-level reports, carjackings are occurring daily across the city. Gas stations, parking lots, and drive-throughs are the most common locations. Several have involved firearms pointed at drivers.
Auto theft overall is surging. Memphis has always had high vehicle theft numbers, and 2021 is pushing them even higher. Through the first half of the year, auto thefts were up roughly 15% to 20% compared to the same period in 2020. The Kia and Hyundai vulnerability (certain models without engine immobilizers can be started with a USB cable) has contributed to the spike, particularly among juvenile offenders.
Chief Davis and the Staffing Crisis
Cerelyn “CJ” Davis took over as Memphis Police Director in June 2021, becoming the city’s first female police chief. She came from Durham, North Carolina, selected by Mayor Jim Strickland after a national search. She inherited a department in crisis.
MPD is currently authorized for approximately 2,100 sworn officers. The actual headcount is closer to 1,900, and some estimates put the effective number even lower when you account for officers on leave, in training, or on administrative duty. That’s a gap of 200 to 300 officers. In practical terms, it means slower response times, fewer proactive patrols, and detectives carrying heavier caseloads.
The staffing problem isn’t new. MPD has been losing officers faster than it can hire them for several years. Starting pay for a Memphis police officer is around $37,000 to $39,000, which doesn’t compete well with suburban departments in Shelby County or neighboring DeSoto County in Mississippi. Collierville, Germantown, and Bartlett all pay better and have lower call volumes. Officers transfer out.
Chief Davis has talked about recruitment and retention as priorities, and the city has discussed pay raises. Three months into her tenure, though, the vacancy numbers haven’t moved. These things take time, and time is the one resource Memphis doesn’t have right now.
What This Means for Private Security
Here’s the connection that most crime reporting misses: every unfilled MPD position creates demand for private security.
When response times stretch past 15 or 20 minutes for non-emergency calls (and that’s happening regularly in some precincts), businesses and property managers make a rational calculation. They hire guards. Not because they want to. Because calling 911 and waiting isn’t a security plan.
I’ve talked to three security company owners in the last month who told me the same thing. They’re getting more RFPs than they can respond to. Commercial properties that never had security are requesting proposals. Apartment complexes in Cordova and Bartlett that relied on off-duty MPD officers for event coverage can’t get those officers anymore, because MPD is restricting off-duty work to preserve staffing for regular shifts.
The irony is vicious. The same labor shortage hitting MPD is also hitting private security companies. Guards and cops draw from overlapping labor pools. When MPD can’t hire, security companies can’t hire either, because the people who might have applied for guard positions are being recruited by MPD with better benefits and a pension.
This means Q4 contract renewals are going to be painful. Companies will raise rates because they can, because demand exceeds supply at every level. Property managers who wait until November or December to start their renewal process will find themselves with fewer options and less negotiating room.
The FBI Will Notice
When the FBI releases its Uniform Crime Report data for 2021 (typically a year or more after the reporting period), Memphis is going to be prominently featured. The city has consistently ranked among the top five most dangerous cities in America by per-capita violent crime rates, and 2021 will almost certainly reinforce that position.
The per-capita rate is what matters in these rankings, and Memphis’s relatively small city population (about 650,000 within city limits) means that 340-plus homicides translates to a murder rate north of 50 per 100,000 residents. For context, the national average hovers around 6 to 7 per 100,000.
These rankings have real economic consequences. They affect corporate relocation decisions. They affect insurance premiums for commercial properties. They affect how national security companies price Memphis contracts compared to contracts in Nashville, Atlanta, or Charlotte.
Property Crime and the Business Impact
While violent crime dominates the conversation, property crime is what most Memphis businesses deal with on a daily basis. Burglaries, shoplifting, vandalism, and copper theft continue at rates that strain already thin police resources.
Retail properties along Winchester Road, in the Raleigh area, and across parts of South Memphis report regular incidents that go unreported to police because owners don’t believe filing a report will lead to action. That’s a problem. It means the official numbers, bad as they are, probably undercount the actual volume of property crime by 20% to 30%.
For businesses reviewing security needs heading into the fall, the calculus is straightforward. MPD is short-staffed and will be for the foreseeable future. Response times for property crime calls are long and getting longer. Insurance companies are asking about on-site security during policy renewals. And the crime data, even the conservative official version, supports increased investment in private protection.
The Uncomfortable Math
Memphis is eight and a half months into 2021, and 203 families have buried someone to violence. That’s not a statistic you process; it’s a wound that spreads through neighborhoods, churches, schools, and workplaces across this city.
The data points toward a year-end total that will shatter last year’s record. Chief Davis has the job for roughly 90 days, she’s working with a department hundreds of officers short, and the violent crime trends she inherited show no sign of reversing on their own.
For the business community, the takeaway is blunt: plan as if the numbers won’t improve before spring. Staff your security accordingly. Review your contracts now, not in December. And pay attention to the neighborhood-level data, because the citywide averages don’t tell you much about what’s happening on your block.
The numbers are the numbers. What you do about them is still up to you.