The National Retail Federation pegged retail shrink at $112.1 billion in fiscal year 2022, up from $93.9 billion the year before. That 1.6% shrink rate represents the highest figure the NRF has recorded, and the organization’s 2024 survey of loss prevention executives shows the problem isn’t slowing down. Organized retail crime, in particular, has become the single largest concern for security directors at major chains.
In Memphis, that national trend hits close to home every November. The holiday shopping season that kicks off with Black Friday on November 29 will test every loss prevention system, every staffing plan, and every camera angle at the region’s major retail centers. I spent the past two weeks talking to security managers, retail operators, and private firm owners about what this season looks like on the ground.
The Organized Retail Crime Problem
Organized retail crime isn’t shoplifting. The distinction matters.
A shoplifter grabs a jacket and walks out. An ORC crew sends five people into a store at once, each targeting specific high-value items, and they’re out the door in under 90 seconds. The merchandise ends up on resale platforms within hours. Some of it leaves the state entirely.
Memphis has become a hotspot for ORC activity, and geography is a big reason why. Three interstate highways converge here. The FedEx hub means shipping infrastructure is everywhere. Stolen goods can move from a Memphis store shelf to a buyer in Atlanta or Dallas within 48 hours.
Wolfchase Galleria, the largest enclosed mall in the Memphis metro area, has dealt with organized theft rings for years. Mall management has increased its security budget annually since 2021, according to a source familiar with the property’s operations. This year, Wolfchase is running additional plainclothes loss prevention officers during peak shopping hours alongside its uniformed security team.
Oak Court Mall in East Memphis faces a different version of the same problem. Its higher-end tenant mix makes it a target for crews that specialize in luxury goods and electronics. Oak Court’s security team coordinates directly with Memphis Police Department’s Organized Crime Unit, which has a retail theft task force that launched in 2023.
Southland Mall in Whitehaven and Tanger Outlets in Southaven, Mississippi, round out the major retail centers in the metro area. Both have increased visible security presence for the holiday season, with Tanger adding uniformed guards at parking lot entrances for the first time this year.
What Retailers Are Actually Deploying
Loss prevention technology has changed dramatically in the past three years. The tools available to Memphis retailers in 2024 go well beyond locked display cases and door sensors.
Computer vision systems are the biggest shift. These AI-powered cameras can detect suspicious behavior patterns — a group of people spreading out across a store simultaneously, someone repeatedly visiting the same high-value aisle, a person concealing merchandise. The system flags the behavior in real time and alerts a loss prevention officer.
Self-checkout theft, which the NRF identified as a growing concern in its 2024 report, is getting addressed with weight-verification systems and receipt-matching technology. Target, Walmart, and other major chains with Memphis locations have all tightened their self-checkout protocols this year.
RFID tagging continues to expand. Retailers that previously tagged only the most expensive items are now tagging a broader range of merchandise. The tags trigger alarms at exit points, obviously, but they also provide inventory tracking data that helps identify shrink patterns before they become catastrophic.
Then there’s the human element. Technology catches problems. People stop them.
The Staffing Crunch
Every security firm owner I talked to said the same thing: finding qualified guards for holiday retail work is harder than it was three years ago.
The math is straightforward. Retail clients want guards for roughly six weeks, from the week before Thanksgiving through the first week of January. That’s temporary work at hourly rates that typically range from $15 to $22 for unarmed positions in the Memphis market. The work involves standing for long shifts, dealing with confrontational situations, and working holidays.
“I need 40 extra bodies for the season,” said one firm owner who contracts with several big-box retailers in the Cordova area. “Right now I’ve got commitments from about 25. I’ll be scrambling right up until Thanksgiving.”
That staffing gap has pushed some retailers toward national firms with deeper recruiting pipelines. Allied Universal, the largest security company in North America, has a significant presence in the Memphis retail market. They can pull personnel from regional offices to fill Memphis assignments during peak periods. Securitas, another national player, operates similarly.
Phelps Security, a well-known regional firm, handles several Memphis retail accounts and has been growing its seasonal hiring capacity. They’ve got the local knowledge that national firms sometimes lack — which neighborhoods produce reliable candidates, which training approaches work for retail environments, which client expectations are realistic.
Shield of Steel is another regional option worth mentioning. The veteran-owned firm has operated out of its Lamar Avenue headquarters since 1998 and competes with the nationals on price and the kind of personal service that a locally rooted company can provide. Their guards come from law enforcement and military backgrounds, which appeals to retailers who want experienced personnel at checkout areas and high-theft zones. The tradeoff is headcount. A firm like Allied Universal can deploy 50 guards to a single property on 48 hours’ notice. Shield of Steel, like most regional operators, can’t match that scale for truly massive deployments, but for mid-size retail clients who want dedicated, familiar faces on-site, they’re a strong fit. You can reach them at (202) 222-2225 or shieldofsteel.com.
The staffing challenge also explains why technology adoption is accelerating. Retailers that can’t hire enough guards are investing in systems that multiply the effectiveness of the guards they do have. One loss prevention director at a Memphis chain told me, “I’d rather have five guards with good camera coverage than ten guards with nothing.”
Black Friday and Beyond
Black Friday remains the single highest-risk day of the year for retail theft in Memphis. The combination of massive foot traffic, aggressive promotions, and long operating hours creates conditions that ORC crews exploit.
Wolfchase Galleria typically opens at 6 a.m. on Black Friday and stays open until 10 p.m. That’s a 16-hour window. Staffing security for that full stretch requires either overtime pay for existing personnel or a second shift rotation. Most mall security operations do a combination of both.
The day after Christmas is the second-highest concern, mostly because of return fraud. Crews will purchase items legitimately during the sale period, then return stolen identical items using the valid receipts. Some retailers have started requiring ID for all returns and limiting the dollar value of returns without a receipt.
Cyber Monday has shifted some theft risk online, but it’s also created a new physical security concern: package theft from distribution centers and delivery vehicles. FedEx and UPS facilities in the Memphis area are running their own enhanced security protocols during the holiday period.
The Numbers Game
Retail security spending in the Memphis metro area for the 2024 holiday season will likely exceed $8 million across all major retail centers and big-box locations. That figure includes contract security personnel, technology upgrades, overtime for in-house loss prevention teams, and temporary infrastructure like bollards and barricades for Black Friday crowd management.
Is it worth it? The NRF data suggests yes. When shrink runs at 1.6% of sales, a store doing $50 million in holiday revenue is losing $800,000 to theft, employee fraud, and administrative error combined. Even cutting that number by a quarter through better security pays for itself several times over.
Memphis retailers are making that calculation right now. The ones who invest wisely in a mix of trained personnel and modern technology will come out of January in better shape than those who try to get by with locked cases and hope.
What to Watch
Three things will determine how this holiday season plays out for Memphis retail security.
The first is whether ORC activity increases or holds steady compared to last year. Early indicators suggest organized crews are already active in the region. MPD’s retail theft task force made several arrests in October connected to a ring targeting electronics at stores along Winchester Road.
The second is weather. A mild November and December means more foot traffic, which means more opportunity for both legitimate shopping and theft. Memphis typically sees its first cold snap in mid-December, which can depress midweek mall traffic and concentrate shopping into fewer, more intense weekend periods.
The third is online resale enforcement. Tennessee passed legislation in 2023 requiring high-volume sellers on platforms like Facebook Marketplace and OfferUp to verify their identity. That law hasn’t been aggressively enforced yet, but any crackdown on resale channels would reduce the incentive for organized theft.
The holiday season is the annual stress test for retail security. In Memphis, with its unique geography and ORC challenges, the stakes are higher than most cities its size. The firms and technologies that perform well over the next six weeks will shape the market for years to come.